Unsure About the Housing Market? Let's Talk.
Lee Welbanks • May 15, 2024
If you’ve been thinking about buying a property, whether that be your first home, next home, forever home, or a home to retire into, the current state of the Canadian economy might have you wondering: Is this really the right time to make a move? There is certainly no shortage of doom and gloom in the news out there.
The truth is, that’s a tough question to answer in the best of times. It’s nearly impossible to know for sure what’s going to happen next with the housing market in Canada. It could heat up or it could cool down.
So here’s some advice. Instead of basing your buying decision entirely on external market factors, like the economy or housing market, consider looking for the answers internally. When you stop looking at the market to determine your timing to buy a home, and instead examine the personal reasons you have for wanting to buy a home, the picture can become much clearer.
Here are some questions to consider. Although they are subjective, they will help bring you clarity. Ask yourself:
- Does buying a property now put me in a better financial position?
- Do I make enough money now to afford a new home and maintain my lifestyle?
- Do I feel confident with my current employment status?
- Have I saved enough money for a down payment?
- How long do I plan on living in this new home?
- Is there any scenario where I might have to sell quickly and potentially lose money?
- Does buying a property now move me closer to my life goals?
- Do I really want to buy now or am I just feeling a lot of pressure to just buy something?
- Am I holding back because I'm scared property prices might drop soon?
There’s no doubt that buying a home can be stressful, but it doesn’t have to be. Having a plan in place is the best course of action to help you make good decisions and alleviate that stress.
If you’d like to have a conversation to discuss your plans, ask some questions, and map out what buying a home looks like for you, we can address many of the unknowns together.
The best place to start is to work through a mortgage pre-approval. There is no cost for this service, you’ll learn exactly what you can qualify for, and it will provide a lot of clarity about your situation.
You might decide that it’s best to wait before buying, and that’s just fine. You might find that now’s a perfect time for you to buy! If you'd like to talk, please connect anytime. You’re not in this alone. We can work through everything together.
Lee Welbanks
Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2¾%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario June 4, 2025 The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. Since the April Monetary Policy Report, the US administration has continued to increase and decrease various tariffs. China and the United States have stepped back from extremely high tariffs and bilateral trade negotiations have begun with a number of countries. However, the outcomes of these negotiations are highly uncertain, tariff rates are well above their levels at the beginning of 2025, and new trade actions are still being threatened. Uncertainty remains high. While the global economy has shown resilience in recent months, this partly reflects a temporary surge in activity to get ahead of tariffs. In the United States, domestic demand remained relatively strong but higher imports pulled down first-quarter GDP. US inflation has ticked down but remains above 2%, with the price effects of tariffs still to come. In Europe, economic growth has been supported by exports, while defence spending is set to increase. China’s economy has slowed as the effects of past fiscal support fade. More recently, high tariffs have begun to curtail Chinese exports to the US. Since the financial market turmoil in April, risk assets have largely recovered and volatility has diminished, although markets remain sensitive to US policy announcements. Oil prices have fluctuated but remain close to their levels at the time of the April MPR. In Canada, economic growth in the first quarter came in at 2.2%, slightly stronger than the Bank had forecast, while the composition of GDP growth was largely as expected. The pull-forward of exports to the United States and inventory accumulation boosted activity, with final domestic demand roughly flat. Strong spending on machinery and equipment held up growth in business investment by more than expected. Consumption slowed from its very strong fourth-quarter pace, but continued to grow despite a large drop in consumer confidence. Housing activity was down, driven by a sharp contraction in resales. Government spending also declined. The labour market has weakened, particularly in trade-intensive sectors, and unemployment has risen to 6.9%. The economy is expected to be considerably weaker in the second quarter, with the strength in exports and inventories reversing and final domestic demand remaining subdued. CPI inflation eased to 1.7% in April, as the elimination of the federal consumer carbon tax reduced inflation by 0.6 percentage points. Excluding taxes, inflation rose 2.3% in April, slightly stronger than the Bank had expected. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation, as well as other measures of underlying inflation, moved up. Recent surveys indicate that households continue to expect that tariffs will raise prices and many businesses say they intend to pass on the costs of higher tariffs. The Bank will be watching all these indicators closely to gauge how inflationary pressures are evolving. With uncertainty about US tariffs still high, the Canadian economy softer but not sharply weaker, and some unexpected firmness in recent inflation data, Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate as we gain more information on US trade policy and its impacts. We will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs. Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy. These include: the extent to which higher US tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve. We are focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is July 30, 2025. The Bank will publish its next MPR at the same time.
One of the major qualifiers lenders look at when considering your application for mortgage financing is your debt service ratios. Now, before we get started, if you prefer to have someone walk through these calculations with you, assess your financial situation, and let you know exactly where you stand, let’s connect. There is no use in dusting off the calculator and running the numbers yourself when we can do it for you! However, if you’re someone who likes to know the nitty-gritty of how things work instead of simply accepting that's just the way it is, this article is for you. But be warned, there are a lot of mortgage words and some math ahead; with that out of the way, let’s get started! “Debt servicing” is the measure of your ability to meet all of your financial obligations. There are two ratios that lenders examine to determine whether you can debt service a mortgage. The first is called the “gross debt service” ratio, or GDS, which is the percentage of your monthly household income that covers your housing costs. The second is called the “total debt service” ratio, or TDS, which is the percentage of your monthly household income covering your housing costs and all your other debts. GDS is your income compared to the cost of financing the mortgage, including your proposed mortgage payments (principal and interest), property taxes, and heat (PITH), plus a percentage of your condo fees (if applicable). Here’s how to calculate your GDS. Principal + Interest + Taxes + Heat / Gross Annual Income Your TDS is your income compared to your GDS plus the payments made to service any existing debts. Debts include car loans, line of credit, credit card payments, support payments, student loans, and anywhere else you’re contractually obligated to make payments. Here’s how to calculate your TDS. Principal + Interest + Taxes + Heat + Other Debts / Gross Annual Income With the calculations for those ratios in place, the next step is to understand that each lender has guidelines that outline a maximum GDS/TDS. Exceeding these guidelines will result in your mortgage application being declined, so the lower your GDS/TDS, the better. If you don’t have any outstanding debts, your GDS and TDS will be the same number. This is a good thing! The maximum ratios vary for conventional mortgage financing based on the lender and mortgage product being offered. However, if your mortgage is high ratio and mortgage default insurance is required, the maximum GDS is 39% with a maximum TDS of 44%. So how does this play out in real life? Well, let’s say you’re currently looking to purchase a property with a payment of $1700/mth (PITH), and your total annual household income is $90,000 ($7500/mth). The calculations would be $1700 divided by $7500, which equals 0.227, giving you a gross debt service ratio of 22.7%. A point of clarity here. When calculating the principal and interest portion of the payment, the Government of Canada has instituted a stress test. It requires you to qualify using the government's qualifying rate (which is higher), not the actual contract rate. This is true for both fixed and variable rate mortgages. Now let’s continue with the scenario. Let’s say that in addition to the payments required to service the property, you have a car payment of $300/mth, child support payments of $500/mth, and between your credit cards and line of credit, you’re responsible for another $700/mth. In total, you pay $1500/mth. So when you add in the $1700/mth PITH, you arrive at a total of $3200/mth for all of your financial obligations. $3200 divided by $7500 equals 0.427, giving you a total debt service ratio of 42.7%. Here’s where it gets interesting. Based on your GDS alone, you can easily afford the property. But when you factor in all your other expenses, the TDS exceeds the allowable limit of 42% (for an insured mortgage anyway). So why does this matter? Well, as it stands, you wouldn’t qualify for the mortgage, even though you are likely paying more than $1700/mth in rent. So then, to qualify, it might be as simple as shuffling some of your debt to lower payments. Or maybe you have 10% of the purchase price saved for a downpayment, changing the mortgage structure to 5% down and using the additional 5% to pay out a portion of your debt might be the difference you need to bring it all together. Here’s the thing, as your actual financial situation is most likely different than the one above, working with an independent mortgage professional is the best way to give yourself options. Don’t do this alone. Your best plan is to seek and rely on the advice provided by an experienced independent mortgage professional. While you might secure a handful of mortgages over your lifetime, we do this every day with people just like you. It’s never too early to start the conversation about mortgage qualification. Going over your application and assessing your debt service ratios in detail beforehand gives you the time needed to make the financial moves necessary to put yourself in the best financial position. So if you find yourself questioning what you can afford or if you want to discuss your GDS/TDS ratios to understand the mortgage process a little better, please get in touch. It would be a pleasure to work with you, we can get a preapproval started right away.
