Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Sept 17th, 2025

Lee Welbanks • September 17, 2025

Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2½%.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

September 17, 2025

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%.

After remaining resilient to sharply higher US tariffs and ongoing uncertainty, global economic growth is showing signs of slowing. In the United States, business investment has been strong but consumers are cautious and employment gains have slowed. US inflation has picked up in recent months as businesses appear to be passing on some tariff costs to consumer prices. Growth in the euro area has moderated as US tariffs affect trade. China’s economy held up in the first half of the year but growth appears to be softening as investment weakens. Global oil prices are close to their levels assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial conditions have eased further, with higher equity prices and lower bond yields. Canada’s exchange rate has been stable relative to the US dollar.

Canada’s GDP declined by about 1½% in the second quarter, as expected, with tariffs and trade uncertainty weighing heavily on economic activity. Exports fell by 27% in the second quarter, a sharp reversal from first-quarter gains when companies were rushing orders to get ahead of tariffs. Business investment also declined in the second quarter. Consumption and housing activity both grew at a healthy pace. In the months ahead, slow population growth and the weakness in the labour market will likely weigh on household spending.

Employment has declined in the past two months since the Bank’s July MPR was published. Job losses have largely been concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, while employment growth in the rest of the economy has slowed, reflecting weak hiring intentions. The unemployment rate has moved up since March, hitting 7.1% in August, and wage growth has continued to ease.

CPI inflation was 1.9% in August, the same as at the time of the July MPR. Excluding taxes, inflation was 2.4%. Preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3% in recent months, but on a monthly basis the upward momentum seen earlier this year has dissipated. A broader range of indicators, including alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes across CPI components, continue to suggest underlying inflation is running around 2½%. The federal government’s recent decision to remove most retaliatory tariffs on imported goods from the US will mean less upward pressure on the prices of these goods going forward.

With a weaker economy and less upside risk to inflation, Governing Council judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks. Looking ahead, the disruptive effects of shifts in trade will continue to add costs even as they weigh on economic activity. Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties. Governing Council will be assessing how exports evolve in the face of US tariffs and changing trade relationships; how much this spills over into business investment, employment, and household spending; how the cost effects of trade disruptions and reconfigured supply chains are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve.

The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 29, 2025. The Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report will be released at the same time.

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Lee Welbanks

RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan Explained: A Smart Way to Buy Your First Home

By Lee Welbanks • May 20, 2026

Saving for a down payment is one of the biggest challenges first-time buyers face. What many don’t realize is that the Canadian government offers a program designed to make it easier—the Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) . This program allows you to withdraw money from your RRSP to help purchase your first home, without immediate tax consequences. Here’s how it works: Who Qualifies? To be eligible, you generally need to be a first-time home buyer. In practical terms, this means you must not have owned a home in the past four years, nor lived in a property owned by your spouse or partner during that time. There are also special allowances if you’re living with a disability or helping a relative with a disability. In these cases, you can use the HBP even if you’ve owned a home more recently. How Much Can You Withdraw? Under the program, you can access up to $35,000 from your RRSP as an individual. Couples can combine their withdrawals for a total of $70,000 . These funds must have been in your RRSP for at least 90 days before you take them out. Paying It Back The HBP isn’t “free money”—it’s an interest-free loan from your own retirement savings. You’ll have 15 years to repay the full amount back into your RRSP, starting in the second year after withdrawal. Each year, the CRA will send you an HBP Statement of Account outlining how much needs to be repaid. If you don’t make your repayment in a given year, that amount will be added to your taxable income. Why It’s a Smart Strategy The HBP can give first-time buyers a powerful boost toward homeownership. It helps you put together a larger down payment, which can reduce your mortgage amount and monthly payments. Just remember: it’s important to balance the short-term benefit of homeownership with the long-term impact on your retirement savings. Next Steps Thinking about using the Home Buyers’ Plan? Let’s sit down and review whether it’s the right move for you. Together, we can create a strategy that gets you into your first home while keeping your future financial goals on track. 📞 Reach out anytime—it would be a pleasure to guide you through the process.

Let’s Talk About Getting Top Dollar for Your Property

By Lee Welbanks • May 13, 2026

When it comes to selling your home, most people think the first call should be to a real estate agent. But the smartest first step often isn’t with your agent—it’s with an independent mortgage professional. Why? Because your mortgage plays a bigger role in your bottom line than most people realize. Planning to Buy After You Sell If selling means you’ll also be purchasing another property, you’ll want to know exactly where you stand financially before listing. Mortgage rules change regularly, and qualifying once doesn’t guarantee you’ll qualify again. Getting a pre-approval in place ensures you know what you can afford and eliminates surprises later. On top of that, reviewing the terms of your existing mortgage could uncover options you may not have considered. For example, porting your mortgage instead of arranging a brand-new one could save you thousands. Selling Without Buying Even if you aren’t planning to buy right away, there’s still an important step: understanding the cost of breaking your mortgage. Unless your mortgage is open, penalties apply—and they can be significant. By reviewing the numbers with a mortgage professional, you might find that simply adjusting your timeline could reduce or even avoid costly fees. Navigating Life Changes In situations like a marital breakdown, it can feel like selling the family home is the only path forward. But that’s not always the case. With the right guidance and a legal separation agreement, one spouse may be able to buy out the other, keeping the home and providing stability for everyone involved. The Bottom Line Selling your property is more than just putting a sign on the lawn—it’s about creating a financial plan that protects your equity and positions you for the best possible outcome. Before you take the leap, let’s sit down and review your options. 📞 If you’re ready to talk strategy and make sure you get top dollar for your property, I’d be happy to connect anytime.