Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Dec 11th, 2024

Lee Welbanks • December 11, 2024

Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 50 basis points to 3¼%.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

December 11, 2024


The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3¼%, with the Bank Rate at 3¾% and the deposit rate at 3¼%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.


The global economy is evolving largely as expected in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, the economy continues to show broad-based strength, with robust consumption and a solid labour market. US inflation has been holding steady, with some price pressures persisting. In the euro area, recent indicators point to weaker growth. In China, recent policy actions combined with strong exports are supporting growth, but household spending remains subdued. Global financial conditions have eased and the Canadian dollar has depreciated in the face of broad-based strength in the US dollar.


In Canada, the economy grew by 1% in the third quarter, somewhat below the Bank’s October projection, and the fourth quarter also looks weaker than projected. Third-quarter GDP growth was pulled down by business investment, inventories and exports. In contrast, consumer spending and housing activity both picked up, suggesting lower interest rates are beginning to boost household spending. Historical revisions to the National Accounts have increased the level of GDP over the past three years, largely reflecting higher investment and consumption. The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November as employment continued to grow more slowly than the labour force. Wage growth showed some signs of easing, but remains elevated relative to productivity.


A number of policy measures have been announced that will affect the outlook for near-term growth and inflation in Canada. Reductions in targeted immigration levels suggest GDP growth next year will be below the Bank’s October forecast. The effects on inflation will likely be more muted, given that lower immigration dampens both demand and supply. Other federal and provincial policies—including a temporary suspension of the GST on some consumer products, one-time payments to individuals, and changes to mortgage rules—will affect the dynamics of demand and inflation. The Bank will look through effects that are temporary and focus on underlying trends to guide its policy decisions.


In addition, the possibility the incoming US administration will impose new tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States has increased uncertainty and clouded the economic outlook.


CPI inflation has been about 2% since the summer, and is expected to average close to the 2% target over the next couple of years. Since October, the upward pressure on inflation from shelter and the downward pressure from goods prices have both moderated as expected. Looking ahead, the GST holiday will temporarily lower inflation but that will be unwound once the GST break ends. Measures of core inflation will help us assess the trend in CPI inflation.


With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by a further 50 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range. Governing Council has reduced the policy rate substantially since June. Going forward, we will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time. Our decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of the implications for the inflation outlook. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.


Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 29, 2025. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR at the same time.


Lee Welbanks

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jun 4th, 2025

By Lee Welbanks • June 4, 2025
Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2¾%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario June 4, 2025 The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. Since the April Monetary Policy Report, the US administration has continued to increase and decrease various tariffs. China and the United States have stepped back from extremely high tariffs and bilateral trade negotiations have begun with a number of countries. However, the outcomes of these negotiations are highly uncertain, tariff rates are well above their levels at the beginning of 2025, and new trade actions are still being threatened. Uncertainty remains high. While the global economy has shown resilience in recent months, this partly reflects a temporary surge in activity to get ahead of tariffs. In the United States, domestic demand remained relatively strong but higher imports pulled down first-quarter GDP. US inflation has ticked down but remains above 2%, with the price effects of tariffs still to come. In Europe, economic growth has been supported by exports, while defence spending is set to increase. China’s economy has slowed as the effects of past fiscal support fade. More recently, high tariffs have begun to curtail Chinese exports to the US. Since the financial market turmoil in April, risk assets have largely recovered and volatility has diminished, although markets remain sensitive to US policy announcements. Oil prices have fluctuated but remain close to their levels at the time of the April MPR. In Canada, economic growth in the first quarter came in at 2.2%, slightly stronger than the Bank had forecast, while the composition of GDP growth was largely as expected. The pull-forward of exports to the United States and inventory accumulation boosted activity, with final domestic demand roughly flat. Strong spending on machinery and equipment held up growth in business investment by more than expected. Consumption slowed from its very strong fourth-quarter pace, but continued to grow despite a large drop in consumer confidence. Housing activity was down, driven by a sharp contraction in resales. Government spending also declined. The labour market has weakened, particularly in trade-intensive sectors, and unemployment has risen to 6.9%. The economy is expected to be considerably weaker in the second quarter, with the strength in exports and inventories reversing and final domestic demand remaining subdued. CPI inflation eased to 1.7% in April, as the elimination of the federal consumer carbon tax reduced inflation by 0.6 percentage points. Excluding taxes, inflation rose 2.3% in April, slightly stronger than the Bank had expected. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation, as well as other measures of underlying inflation, moved up. Recent surveys indicate that households continue to expect that tariffs will raise prices and many businesses say they intend to pass on the costs of higher tariffs. The Bank will be watching all these indicators closely to gauge how inflationary pressures are evolving. With uncertainty about US tariffs still high, the Canadian economy softer but not sharply weaker, and some unexpected firmness in recent inflation data, Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate as we gain more information on US trade policy and its impacts. We will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs. Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy. These include: the extent to which higher US tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve. We are focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is July 30, 2025. The Bank will publish its next MPR at the same time.

What Are GDS/TDS Ratios Anyways?

By Lee Welbanks • May 28, 2025
One of the major qualifiers lenders look at when considering your application for mortgage financing is your debt service ratios. Now, before we get started, if you prefer to have someone walk through these calculations with you, assess your financial situation, and let you know exactly where you stand, let’s connect. There is no use in dusting off the calculator and running the numbers yourself when we can do it for you! However, if you’re someone who likes to know the nitty-gritty of how things work instead of simply accepting that's just the way it is, this article is for you. But be warned, there are a lot of mortgage words and some math ahead; with that out of the way, let’s get started! “Debt servicing” is the measure of your ability to meet all of your financial obligations. There are two ratios that lenders examine to determine whether you can debt service a mortgage. The first is called the “gross debt service” ratio, or GDS, which is the percentage of your monthly household income that covers your housing costs. The second is called the “total debt service” ratio, or TDS, which is the percentage of your monthly household income covering your housing costs and all your other debts. GDS is your income compared to the cost of financing the mortgage, including your proposed mortgage payments (principal and interest), property taxes, and heat (PITH), plus a percentage of your condo fees (if applicable). Here’s how to calculate your GDS. Principal + Interest + Taxes + Heat / Gross Annual Income Your TDS is your income compared to your GDS plus the payments made to service any existing debts. Debts include car loans, line of credit, credit card payments, support payments, student loans, and anywhere else you’re contractually obligated to make payments. Here’s how to calculate your TDS. Principal + Interest + Taxes + Heat + Other Debts / Gross Annual Income With the calculations for those ratios in place, the next step is to understand that each lender has guidelines that outline a maximum GDS/TDS. Exceeding these guidelines will result in your mortgage application being declined, so the lower your GDS/TDS, the better. If you don’t have any outstanding debts, your GDS and TDS will be the same number. This is a good thing! The maximum ratios vary for conventional mortgage financing based on the lender and mortgage product being offered. However, if your mortgage is high ratio and mortgage default insurance is required, the maximum GDS is 39% with a maximum TDS of 44%. So how does this play out in real life? Well, let’s say you’re currently looking to purchase a property with a payment of $1700/mth (PITH), and your total annual household income is $90,000 ($7500/mth). The calculations would be $1700 divided by $7500, which equals 0.227, giving you a gross debt service ratio of 22.7%. A point of clarity here. When calculating the principal and interest portion of the payment, the Government of Canada has instituted a stress test. It requires you to qualify using the government's qualifying rate (which is higher), not the actual contract rate. This is true for both fixed and variable rate mortgages. Now let’s continue with the scenario. Let’s say that in addition to the payments required to service the property, you have a car payment of $300/mth, child support payments of $500/mth, and between your credit cards and line of credit, you’re responsible for another $700/mth. In total, you pay $1500/mth. So when you add in the $1700/mth PITH, you arrive at a total of $3200/mth for all of your financial obligations. $3200 divided by $7500 equals 0.427, giving you a total debt service ratio of 42.7%. Here’s where it gets interesting. Based on your GDS alone, you can easily afford the property. But when you factor in all your other expenses, the TDS exceeds the allowable limit of 42% (for an insured mortgage anyway). So why does this matter? Well, as it stands, you wouldn’t qualify for the mortgage, even though you are likely paying more than $1700/mth in rent. So then, to qualify, it might be as simple as shuffling some of your debt to lower payments. Or maybe you have 10% of the purchase price saved for a downpayment, changing the mortgage structure to 5% down and using the additional 5% to pay out a portion of your debt might be the difference you need to bring it all together. Here’s the thing, as your actual financial situation is most likely different than the one above, working with an independent mortgage professional is the best way to give yourself options. Don’t do this alone. Your best plan is to seek and rely on the advice provided by an experienced independent mortgage professional. While you might secure a handful of mortgages over your lifetime, we do this every day with people just like you. It’s never too early to start the conversation about mortgage qualification. Going over your application and assessing your debt service ratios in detail beforehand gives you the time needed to make the financial moves necessary to put yourself in the best financial position. So if you find yourself questioning what you can afford or if you want to discuss your GDS/TDS ratios to understand the mortgage process a little better, please get in touch. It would be a pleasure to work with you, we can get a preapproval started right away.