Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Apr 16th, 2025

Lee Welbanks • April 16, 2025

Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2¾%.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

April 16, 2025

 


The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%.


The major shift in direction of US trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations. Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally. Instead, the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy. In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope. Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year. Many other trade policy scenarios are possible. There is also an unusual degree of uncertainty about the economic outcomes within any scenario, since the magnitude and speed of the shift in US trade policy are unprecedented.


Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the United States, the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the euro area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.


Financial markets have been roiled by serial tariff announcements, postponements and continued threats of escalation. This extreme market volatility is adding to uncertainty. Oil prices have declined substantially since January, mainly reflecting weaker prospects for global growth. Canada’s exchange rate has recently appreciated as a result of broad US dollar weakness.


In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation. 


Inflation was 2.3% in March, lower than in February but still higher than 1.8% at the time of the January MPR. The higher inflation in the last couple of months reflects some rebound in goods price inflation and the end of the temporary suspension of the GST/HST. Starting in April, CPI inflation will be pulled down for one year by the removal of the consumer carbon tax. Lower global oil prices will also dampen inflation in the near term. However, we expect tariffs and supply chain disruptions to push up some prices. How much upward pressure this puts on inflation will depend on the evolution of tariffs and how quickly businesses pass on higher costs to consumers. Short-term inflation expectations have moved up, as businesses and consumers anticipate higher costs from trade conflict and supply disruptions. Longer term inflation expectations are little changed.


Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs. Our focus will be on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. This means we will support economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well controlled.


Governing Council will proceed carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy. These include: the extent to which higher tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve. 


Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war. What it can and must do is maintain price stability for Canadians.


Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is June 4, 2025. The Bank will publish its next MPR on July 30, 2025.


Read the April 16th, 2025 Monetary Report


Lee Welbanks

Smart Steps to Get Your Home Market-Ready

By Lee Welbanks • July 29, 2026
Thinking About Selling Your Home? Start With These 3 Key Questions Selling your home is a major move—emotionally, financially, and logistically. Whether you're upsizing, downsizing, relocating, or just ready for a change, there are a few essential questions you should have answers to before you list that "For Sale" sign. 1. How Will I Get My Home Sale-Ready? Before your property hits the market, you’ll want to make sure it puts its best foot forward. That starts with understanding its current market value—and ends with a plan to maximize its appeal. A real estate professional can walk you through what similar homes in your area have sold for and help tailor a prep plan that aligns with current market conditions. Here are some things you might want to consider: Decluttering and removing personal items Minor touch-ups or repairs Fresh paint inside (and maybe outside too) Updated lighting or fixtures Professional staging Landscaping or exterior cleanup High-quality photos and possibly a virtual tour These aren’t must-dos, but smart investments here can often translate to a higher sale price and faster sale. 2. What Will It Actually Cost to Sell? It’s easy to look at the selling price and subtract your mortgage balance—but the real math is more nuanced. Here's a breakdown of the typical costs involved in selling a home: Real estate agent commissions (plus GST/HST) Legal fees Mortgage discharge fees (and possibly a penalty) Utility and property tax adjustments Moving expenses and/or storage costs That mortgage penalty can be especially tricky—it can sometimes be thousands of dollars, depending on your lender and how much time is left in your term. Not sure what it might cost you? I can help you estimate it. 3. What’s My Plan After the Sale? Knowing your next step is just as important as selling your current home. If you're buying again, don’t assume you’ll automatically qualify for a new mortgage just because you’ve had one before. Lending rules change, and so might your financial situation. Before you sell, talk to a mortgage professional to find out what you’re pre-approved for and what options are available. If you're planning to rent or relocate temporarily, think about timelines, storage, and transition costs. Clarity and preparation go a long way. The best way to reduce stress and make confident decisions is to work with professionals you trust—and ask all the questions you need. If you’re thinking about selling and want help mapping out your next steps, I’d be happy to chat anytime. Let’s make a smart plan, together.
Four coworkers in a bright office meeting around a laptop and papers, discussing work at a wooden table

Debt Cosolidation Strategy

By Lee Welbanks • July 22, 2026
How to Get Out of Debt Faster Debt has a way of quickly spiralling out of control, particularly if you face one of life’s most common financial obstacles – such as job loss/wage reduction, separation/divorce or illness/death. But, fortunately, there are debt-reduction strategies available to get you out of debt quicker and remain debt free! One popular debt-reduction strategy tackles your smallest debt balances first before moving up the chain to pay off larger ones. When the smallest debt is paid in full, you roll the minimum payment you were making on that debt into the next-smallest debt payment. Here’s how it works in bite-sized steps: Record your debts from smallest to largest regardless of interest rate Make minimum payments on all your debts except the smallest one Pay as much as possible on your smallest debt Repeat until each debt is paid in full Focus on outstanding balances, not interest rates If your largest debt has the largest interest rate, it’s going to be a long time before you even see a dent in that crazy balance of yours. But when you stick to the smallest balance plan, you’re going to feel a true sense of accomplishment as you pay off that debt super quick. That excitement is what’s going to motivate you to keep working hard until you’re completely out of debt. This debt strategy is effective because it’s all about changing your behaviour. And once you see positive results, you’re more encouraged to stay the course until you’re out of debt. Example Let’s say you have four different debts: $500 dental bill – $50 payment $2,500 credit card debt – $63 payment $7,000 car loan – $135 payment $10,000 student loan – $96 payment Using this debt strategy, you make minimum payments on everything except the $500 dental bill. Since you’re paying $550 a month on the dental bill (the $50 minimum payment plus the extra $500), that debt is completely gone in one month. Now you can take the freed-up $550 and attack your credit card debt, paying a total of $613 ($550 plus the $63 minimum payment). In about four months, you’ll be waving goodbye to that credit card debt too! Next, you’ll tackle the car loan to the tune of $748 a month ($613 plus $135). In 10 months, you’ll be driving a vehicle you actually own. By the time you reach that dreaded student loan (your biggest debt), you can put $844 a month towards it. That means you’ll be making your final payment in just 12 months. With all your hard work and sacrifice, throwing extra money into your debt strategy and staying focused on the goal, you’ll have paid off $20,000 in just 27 months! Wondering if this is the right debt strategy for you? I’m always here to help. Answers are a call or email away.