Bank of Canada Holds Rate at 2.25% — March 18, 2026
The Bank of Canada announced today that it is holding its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. For anyone watching the mortgage market — whether you're renewing, purchasing, or simply keeping an eye on borrowing costs — here's a breakdown of what was announced and what it may mean for you.
What the Bank of Canada Said
The Global Picture
The Bank noted that global economic growth was tracking at approximately 3% heading into 2026, but conditions have become more uncertain following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East. Global oil and natural gas prices have risen sharply as a result, which is expected to push inflation higher in the near term. Transportation bottlenecks — including disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz — are also raising concerns about the supply of key commodities.
Financial markets have responded: global bond yields have risen, equity prices have declined, and credit spreads have widened. The Canada-U.S. dollar exchange rate has remained relatively stable through all of this.
The Canadian Economy
Canada's GDP contracted 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025, somewhat weaker than the Bank had anticipated — though much of this was driven by a larger-than-expected drawdown in inventories, rather than a collapse in consumer spending. In fact, domestic demand grew by more than 2%, supported by consumer and government spending.
Looking ahead, the Bank expects modest economic growth as Canada continues adjusting to U.S. tariffs and ongoing trade policy uncertainty. However, the labour market has softened. Employment gains made in the fourth quarter of 2025 were largely reversed in the first two months of 2026, and the unemployment rate climbed to 6.7% in February.
Inflation
On the inflation front, CPI inflation eased to 1.8% in February, down from 2.3% in January — below the Bank's 2% target. Core inflation measures have also come down and are sitting close to 2%. That said, the recent surge in global energy prices is expected to push gasoline prices — and therefore total inflation — higher in the coming months.
Why the Bank Held
With growth risks tilted to the downside and inflation risks moving upward due to energy prices, the Bank of Canada's Governing Council chose to hold steady at 2.25% rather than move in either direction. The Bank cited the need to assess the evolving impact of U.S. tariffs, trade uncertainty, and the Middle East conflict before making any further adjustments.
In the Bank's own words, they "stand ready to respond as needed" — signalling that future moves remain on the table depending on how conditions develop.
What This Means for Mortgage Holders and Buyers
A rate hold means no immediate change to variable-rate mortgage payments or home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) tied to the prime rate. However, the language from the Bank signals a cautious, wait-and-see approach in a climate that carries real uncertainty — both on the growth and inflation sides.
The next scheduled rate announcement is April 29, 2026 , at which point a new Monetary Policy Report will also be released with updated economic projections.
As always, every borrower's situation is unique. If you have questions about how today's announcement affects your mortgage — or want to explore your options — don't hesitate to reach out. Staying informed is one of the best tools you have in any rate environment.
Information sourced from the Bank of Canada's official press release dated March 18, 2026.
Lee Welbanks
